When Is A Good Time To Buy Gold
Gold is often considered a good investment for diversification, as it may be less correlated with other assets such as stocks or bonds. This means that the price of gold may be less affected by movements in other asset classes, which can help to reduce overall portfolio risk.
when is a good time to buy gold
Not surprisingly, some older adults may be considering options like reverse mortgages, cash-out refinancing and other methods to help make ends meet. Buying gold may be one option worth exploring since gold has historically been a solid hedge against inflation. When the cost of living rises, the price of gold tends to go up as well.
Is now a good time to buy gold? Are there times in your life, or this year, when buying gold is more beneficial? Let's take a closer look at gold as an investment and when you should consider buying it.
Many investors add gold to their portfolios as a hedge against inflation and a store of value (an asset that retains its purchasing power without depreciation). Gold has also historically been a strong hedge during times of financial crisis. Many experts cite the best time to buy gold as when inflation or a recession is possible since the value of gold tends to rise during these times.
Research from the World Gold Council states that when the inflation rate outpaces interest rate increases like we're seeing, commodities like gold may outshine some traditional financial assets. When the value of the dollar decreases, people seek out gold and other safe and stable places to put their money to hedge against inflation.
Consider this: The 1970s was a decade of inflation, starting with an average interest rate of 5.84% in 1970 and ending with a whopping average rate of 13.58% in 1980. During the same period, the gold value soared from $35 per share to $850 per share, according to NASDAQ data.
Traditionally, gold buyers have been older investors, but investing in gold may make sense for younger investors. For example, if you're in your twenties to mid-thirties, you have roughly 30 years before you can retire. With plenty of time to save for retirement, you can risk more than an older person might, so gold may be a more attractive investment option.
Despite the appeal of gold as a safe haven, gold may be too risky for retirees who need income-producing investments, according to AARP. Additionally, gold can experience wild fluctuations in value within a short period or limp along for years. Older investors may benefit more from income-generating investments, such as stocks that pay dividends, municipal bonds and real estate investment trusts. On the other hand, some investors may consider a small amount of gold as part of a diversified portfolio and as insurance against a severe market crash, catastrophic economic problems, or even war.
According to GoldSilver, an online precious metals dealer, the best times of the year to purchase gold are in early January, March and early April, or from mid-June to early July. These conclusions stem from GoldSilver's analysis of the average performance of gold for every day between 1975 and 2021.
Notably, the research found there are seasons to buy gold before its price rises. On average, gold prices rise during the year's first two months. Gold prices then drop off over the spring and summer before climbing again in the fall.
Gold prices constantly fluctuate, as seen on any gold price chart. The price rises and falls in response to real-time trading behavior, so pay close attention to market movements online, looking for price dips to time your buy.
If you're looking for the best time to buy gold, understand that timing the market for the lowest price is difficult. A better approach may be to buy gold in small quantities regularly. By portioning out your gold buy, instead of making one large transaction, you might be able to buy at a lower average price to maximize your returns.
When considering the pros and cons of buying gold, it helps to understand what your goals are. If it's to diversify your portfolio or to hedge against inflation, then gold makes sense to pursue. But if you're an older American who is looking for income-producing investments or, simply, alternative sources of income, then gold may not beneficial.
Gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are made up of gold-backed assets instead of gold itself. ETFs pool other financial instruments to offer investors exposure to a particular index, sector, commodity or asset class. Their structure is similar to mutual funds except that they can be traded as stocks. With a gold ETF, investors gain exposure to gold without having to buy the physical commodity, which can be quite expensive.
Given that gold has remained valuable for centuries it can stake its claim as a potentially good long-term investment. It has a proven track record of being used as a vehicle to pass wealth through generations. Furthermore, gold holds its value during both inflationary and deflationary times which further adds to its appeal as a long-term investment.
Research conducted by Goldsilver.com shows the probability of profiting from an investment in gold increases if the commodity is bought at the beginning of January, late March to early April, and mid-June to early July. Since 1975, March was the worst month for gold so buying it then would increase the odds of profitability. Furthermore, the research showed that an investor interested in buying gold should do so by the end of the second quarter of a given year.2
There are two main methods of investing in gold: paper and physical. Paper gold is for portfolio protection, used to diversify portfolios, which usually brings balance in times of market uncertainty. Physical gold is to protect your purchasing power, or as discussed earlier, to lock in your purchasing power.
The opportunity cost of having your investment in physical metals instead of a dividend-rich stock could be considered another drawback. Physical metals will only generate income when you sell the metals, unlike quarterly dividends associated with some stocks.
When investors are ready to cash out their investment, they must also consider the liquidation process. Liquidating physical gold and silver may require shipping the metals to a reputable dealer. If the dealer you purchased from does not offer a buyback program, you will have to find another to purchase your metals.
Lastly, investors must remember there is always risk. While we can use historical trends to track the performance of precious metals, we cannot guarantee they will result in a positive return on investment. Like any other investment, precious metals could go down in value. Though its historical performance has shown it to be one of the safest investments, there is still some level of risk. Investors should fully consider all these aspects before committing to gold.
Gold has underperformed the U.S. stock market over the long term. However, the yellow stuff has a reputation for being a safe-haven asset amid times of uncertainty. And many have even referred to gold as an inflation hedge.
For part of 2020 to 2022, the inflation hedge story rang true as gold passed $2,000 per ounce for the first time in history in 2020 and then reached an all-time high of $2,074.60 per ounce in March 2022. But in the last four months, gold suffered an 18% drawdown from that high -- meaning that gold is nearly in a bear market during a time when it should be holding its value. In this vein, gold seems to be failing as an inflation hedge. And in fact, there is data to suggest that gold's reputation as an inflation hedge has been largely exaggerated even by historical measures.
A slowdown in economic growth and rising geopolitical issues tend to help the price of gold. However, a strong U.S. dollar hurts the price of gold, because a strong U.S. dollar relative to other currencies makes it more expensive for foreign buyers to purchase U.S. dollar-denominated gold.
The U.S. Dollar Index, which tracks the value of the dollar relative to the value of the euro, Swiss franc, Japanese yen, Canadian dollar, British pound, and Swedish krona, is at a 20-year high. Part of the ascent is due to the U.S. Federal Reserve rapidly raising interest rates to combat inflation. High interest rates encourage foreign investment in U.S. Treasuries. High interest rates also mean that holding gold has an opportunity cost, given it doesn't pay interest like a U.S. certificate of deposit.
In past U.S. recessions, the Federal Reserve would lower interest rates and hopefully weaken the U.S. dollar in an effort to encourage domestic consumption and make it less expensive to export U.S. goods. However, because the Federal Reserve's priority No. 1 is lowering inflation, not preventing a recession, the dollar could remain strong for the foreseeable future. A strong dollar is arguably the biggest headwind holding gold back right now.
Over the last few years, there have been several polls that suggest millennials and Gen Z are more likely to view cryptocurrency as a preferred investment than gold. Granted, many of those polls were taken before the recent crypto crash. However, millennials are now the most active generation in the economy now that many Baby Boomers have retired. Less demand for gold as an investment in risk-averse or retirement portfolios could dampen demand.
Many investors may feel that beaten-down stocks are a better buy now than gold. They are probably right. Gold may be down 18% from its high, but there are plenty of top stocks that are down well over 50%. Even several well-known Dow Jones Industrial Average components, such as Nike, Home Depot, and Salesforce are all down between 30% and 53% from their all-time highs.
Warren Buffett has long said that gold is a bad investment because its growth prospects are limited to supply and demand, rather than a company that can grow with innovation and good management. By keeping cash on the sidelines or buying gold now, an investor essentially says investing in gold is a better use of capital than a different asset. 041b061a72